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Worldwide Steel Demand Could Rise in 2026, World Steel Association Says
10/16/2025 - The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting a stagnant year for global steel demand, with modest recovery to come in 2026.
According to the association’s latest Short Range Outlook, demand is expected to remain flat at approximately 1.75 billion metric tons this year and could notch up 1.3% in 2026.
“Despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026,” said Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Producers Association and chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee.
“This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected ease in financing conditions.”
In the U.S., demand is forecast to rise by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by infrastructure projects, residential construction, and potential stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, in China, demand is expected to fall by 2% this year, marking a continuation of the decline that began in 2021, worldsteel said, adding that the decline is projected to slow to 1% in 2026 as the country’s housing market stabilizes.
In India, however, demand could grow by around 9% annually through 2026, driven by expansion across all steel-using sectors.
Although worldsteel is predicting demand growth in 2026, it said risks are aplenty.
“First, the global manufacturing sector continues to face a squeeze from elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Second, escalating trade tensions are having a direct, negative impact on steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, such as machinery and automotive components. Finally, geopolitical uncertainties act as a major deterrent, chilling both consumer and investor confidence, and dampening steel demand across key markets,” Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.
“Despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026,” said Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Producers Association and chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee.
“This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected ease in financing conditions.”
In the U.S., demand is forecast to rise by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by infrastructure projects, residential construction, and potential stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, in China, demand is expected to fall by 2% this year, marking a continuation of the decline that began in 2021, worldsteel said, adding that the decline is projected to slow to 1% in 2026 as the country’s housing market stabilizes.
In India, however, demand could grow by around 9% annually through 2026, driven by expansion across all steel-using sectors.
Although worldsteel is predicting demand growth in 2026, it said risks are aplenty.
“First, the global manufacturing sector continues to face a squeeze from elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Second, escalating trade tensions are having a direct, negative impact on steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, such as machinery and automotive components. Finally, geopolitical uncertainties act as a major deterrent, chilling both consumer and investor confidence, and dampening steel demand across key markets,” Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.
